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Nov 22, 2022Liked by Elliot Hershberg

I love the article and agree. The advances in biotech and merger of computers "computational biology" are going to have a profound impact. The cure for both multiple rare diseases and cancers is playing out right now. Last decade's photo sharing app and SaaS solution have nothing on what will be created over the next 5-10 years in biotech and healthtech. Bay area is uniquely special to take advantage of this.

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Really interesting that this was posted directly after your previous post, which concluded that 'atoms are local'.

Do you see a future where both theses are simultaneously correct?

Where the Bay area is a/the critical hub for R&D and early-stage commercialization...but the 'scaling up' (i.e. mass, decentralized production) happens locally?

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This is a great question!

My primary thesis in 'Atoms are Local' is that we have important choices to make about what *type* of technology we want to build. Are we going to build giant bio-factories that resemble their industrial predecessors, or develop more personal and local systems.

The concentration of Web companies in Silicon Valley is an interesting example. The region was a huge innovator in the hardware that helped enable a highly distributed global network of computers. It became a key developer of the early applications on that network as well. But over time, people all over the world have computers and are developing new applications for the Web. Silicon Valley is becoming less of a Web hub.

I think that we are earlier in this trajectory for biotechnology, and that the initial conditions in the Bay are still really important to help this take off and reach escape velocity. I hope to see a similar phenomenon unfold to the process of maturation I described above for the Web.

One other interesting analogy is Hollywood and Film/Television. At first, there was a hub of studios that produced most films in a central region, but the distribution channel enabled consumption around the world. Over time, especially with decreases in the cost of movie production and the spread of the craft, movies are made all around the world.

That's how I view the relationship between these two ideas. Thanks again for the thoughtful question.

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